Brandon Zietsman, CEO and Head of Investments at PortfolioMetrix shares some positive data from Italy

The corona crisis is fast moving, so we’ll communicate as frequently as need be. I will ignore commenting on the SA measures announced last night as this has already been extensively reported on elsewhere. I’ll focus instead on the data we are watching closely, and this was my most eagerly awaited statistic for today.

Trend reversal?

After the previous day’s decline in Italian deaths, today’s numbers would either confirm a trend reversal or reveal an anomaly. The number of deaths is high fidelity data compared to confirmed infections. Two consecutive days of decline is very significant. China is not a yardstick for the West as they contained a geographical area early and that horse has bolted; nor South Korea, as they also got going early with testing, tracking and isolation. Italy is very useful as they initially made a shambles of it before a less than perfect, but now hard, lock-down.

Source: www.worldometers.info

Italy is more likely the route that the UK will follow in the absence of a drug, based on number of cases and geographic distribution. This is the first statistic that seems to confirm the effectiveness of lock-down in a Western European context and allows us to better calibrate the shape and possible duration of the outbreak. The wild card is the US, which potentially stands to become a massive human tragedy if America relaxes separation protocols too early.

Maintain the lock-down

Italy has been in lock-down since the 9th of March but will need to keep their foot on the gas to keep this this trend going. A reduction in the death RATE still means that total deaths are rising.

Source: www.worldometers.info

Getting the infection rate below 1

Daily new cases are a less reliable metric as many people who are asymptomatic, or only have mild symptoms, will not bother getting tested but simply quarantine. Nevertheless, these numbers also seem supportive of a trend shift.

Source: www.worldometers.info

In the chart below, it is possible to see this slowing in the rate of increase in active cases as the line is getting flatter, not steeper. If Italy can get and keep the infection rate below 1 (the number of people an infected person passes the virus on to), the war is being won. What we will be looking for next will be an absolute decline in active cases, where the line starts moving downwards. At that point, it becomes easier to predict when life could start returning to “normal”.

Source: www.worldometers.info

This trend, if it continues, is massively positive but by no means signals the immediate end of lock-down. Any easing of restrictions at this stage could undo the gains. For South Africans, this should provide motivation for embracing our lock-down state and contextualising the personal sacrifices being made.